Ogier Can Clinch the 2015 Title at the ADAC Rallye Deutschland if ...

• First match point for Ogier
• Sébastien Ogier and Julien Ingrassia may prematurely clinch the title at the German FIA WRC event
• Race for manufacturer’s title remains undecided

Munich/Trier, 19 Aug. 2015 – The ADAC Rallye Deutschland will be the ninth of 13 rounds of this year’s FIA Rallye World Championship. Theoretically, Sébastien Ogier may already celebrate his new title win as the defending Rally World Champion in front of the Porta Nigra gate in Trier on 23 August 2015. After 2013 and 2014, this would be the Volkswagen Motorsport driver’s third title in a row. However, certain conditions need to be fulfilled for Sébastien Ogier and his co-pilot Julien Ingrassia to achieve the premature title hattrick.

The absolutely decisive criterion: Sébastien Ogier will only become World Champion at the Rallye Deutschland if he succeeds in increasing his lead to as many as 112 points. Although the four WRC rounds after the ADAC Rallye Deutschland still hold a maximum of 112 points in store, the higher number of victories would break a potential tie at the end of the season. Ogier may still be bested in this regard, but not when it comes to the number of second places as the next tie-breaker.

The second criterion: Sébastien Ogier needs to win the ADAC Rallye Deutschland in order to clinch the title prematurely. Only victory would give him the points needed to increase his 89-point lead over second-placed Jari-Matti Latvala to at least 112 points. The winner of a WRC round scores 25 points, while no. 2 is awarded 18 points , no. 3 gets 15 points and so on (25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1) down to 1 point for tenth place. Plus, there are bonus points for the fastest Power Stage drivers: 3 for first place, 2 for second place and 1 for third place.

This means: Sébastien Ogier can become World Champion in Germany only if he augments his lead over Jari-Matti Latvala by at least 23 points, his lead over Mads Østberg by at least 14 points and his lead over Andreas Mikkelsen by at least 13 points. Consequently, there is a large number of scenarios for a premature title win. For instance, the following two examples:

Scenario 1
Sébastien Ogier becomes World Champion if he wins (25 points) and...
... Jari-Matti Latvala places no higher than ninth (2 points),
... Mads Østberg places no higher than fifth (10 points),
... Andreas Mikkelsen places no higher than fourth (12 points)
... and none of their teams scores any Power Stage points.

Scenario 2
Sébastien Ogier becomes World Champion if he wins the Rallye Deutschland and the Power Stage (25+3 points) and...
... Jari-Matti Latvala places no higher than eighth in the Rallye Deutschland and third in the Power Stage (4+1 points),
... Mads Østberg places no higher than fourth in the Rallye Deutschland and scores no Power Stage points (12 points),
... Andreas Mikkelsen places no higher than third in the Rallye Deutschland and scores no Power Stage points (15 points).

Apart from the above scenarios, numerous further constellations are conceivable for an early title win.

Volkswagen Motorsport headed for title win in manufacturer’s classification

Should they clinch their first home victory at the ADAC Rallye Deutschland, the Volkswagen Motorsport team would also take a giant step towards prematurely defending their title in the manufacturer’s classification. The German car manufacturer’s crew is currently 116 points ahead of the 2nd-placed Citroën Total Abu Dhabi World Rally Team. Thus, the prospects are very good for a successful title defence. Simple maths show that the manufacturer’s classification cannot be decided at the ADAC Rallye Deutschland. It will definitely take one or more of the coming WRC rounds to determine the new Manufacturer’s World Champion – who may just be the old one.